I am interest in this stock because price is history low.
resource look good.
mining output look good too.
their cost/sale price on presentation look good (cost around $50, export price ~$100)
but on their 2011 statement:
- revenue = 50mil (sold 0.8m ton, what is sale price???)
- cost of sales = 47mil !!!!! OMG
other cost:
-- Finance cost = 11mil ( can cut down to 3mil in 2012)
-- impairement = 11.8m (can remove in 2012)
-- Depreciation = 4.3m (stay same in 2012)
-- Other expense = 23mil !!! ( can reduce to 9mil in 2012)
---------------------
so let try work out 2012 profit:
Sale = double output = 100mil
Cost of sale = 75mil (base on 25% gross profit margin)
-----------------------
Gross Profit = 25mil
Finance cost = 3mil interest on load
Depreciation = 4.3mil
Employee = 4m (was 2.5 on 2011, need hire more staff)
Director = 3m
other expense = 2m
---------------------
EBITDA = 25-16.3 = 8.7mil
No TAX because they lost money in previous year.
Possible Error:
- Gross Profit margin may changed (eg, Bought in Coal is HUGE cost in their statement)
- do 2012 still have "prepaid borrow cost"?
- do 2012 still have 9.8m consultant cost ?
- do 2012 still have any impairement cost ? (2011 = 11mil)
overall their gross profit margin is too small, they need higher export quality coal, domestic sale price is too low and can't make profit.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?