CCC 0.00% 0.1¢ continental coal limited

I am interest in this stock because price is history...

  1. 448 Posts.

    I am interest in this stock because price is history low.

    resource look good.

    mining output look good too.

    their cost/sale price on presentation look good (cost around $50, export price ~$100)

    but on their 2011 statement:
    - revenue = 50mil (sold 0.8m ton, what is sale price???)
    - cost of sales = 47mil !!!!! OMG
    other cost:
    -- Finance cost = 11mil ( can cut down to 3mil in 2012)
    -- impairement = 11.8m (can remove in 2012)
    -- Depreciation = 4.3m (stay same in 2012)
    -- Other expense = 23mil !!! ( can reduce to 9mil in 2012)

    ---------------------

    so let try work out 2012 profit:

    Sale = double output = 100mil
    Cost of sale = 75mil (base on 25% gross profit margin)
    -----------------------
    Gross Profit = 25mil

    Finance cost = 3mil interest on load
    Depreciation = 4.3mil
    Employee = 4m (was 2.5 on 2011, need hire more staff)
    Director = 3m
    other expense = 2m

    ---------------------
    EBITDA = 25-16.3 = 8.7mil

    No TAX because they lost money in previous year.

    Possible Error:
    - Gross Profit margin may changed (eg, Bought in Coal is HUGE cost in their statement)
    - do 2012 still have "prepaid borrow cost"?
    - do 2012 still have 9.8m consultant cost ?
    - do 2012 still have any impairement cost ? (2011 = 11mil)


    overall their gross profit margin is too small, they need higher export quality coal, domestic sale price is too low and can't make profit.



 
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