Cyc838 posted a table in the forum on 17 Apr 2019, showing shorts of Senex as a % of its transaction volumes. I think it is interesting. I always admire shorters because I think they are smarter than most of us. After all, shorting is a risky game and it requires good skills. But I just can't figure out why they would want to short Senex.
In terms of valuation, Senex is already the cheapest in respect of EV/2P and earnings growth prospects. Currently, apart from Copper Energy, Senex is the only one O&G company in ASX that can grow earnings 400% in 2 years time, and that can grow earnings every quarter from now on until then. Under this circumstance, can Senex be shorted to a much lower price if the market does not collapse?
In terms of earnings, Senex will be announcing Q3 results probably next week. And, they can hardly be bad given the continue ramp up of Roma North gas, the contribution from four new oil wells, and the new hedge at A$98 (US$71) to start kicking in.
If the shorters are not shorting Senex because of over-valuation or bad earnings, are they shorting because of quality issues? To me, Senex certainly does not look like one that have corporate fraud problems. EIG is a major shareholder and they have a representative inside watching the company, who is the Senior Vice President of EIG and who worked in Goldman Sachs before. And, ANZ just made a A$150 mil loan to Senex. So, surely both EIG and ANZ had made very in-depth due diligence before placing their big bets on Senex, right?
Or, is it because of project delays? Didn't Senex just announced they had secured final environmental approval for project Atlas, will start drilling Atlas+Roma North next month and had signed a minor gas supply contract with CSR. Aren't these all significant de-risk progresses? First gas sales will happen as soon as Dec this year. And, before that happens, production will still be growing because of the ramping up of existing old gas wells and new oil wells and the exploration of new oil wells.
Because of the collapse in oil markets and stock markets? China is turning around, US is still strong with unemployment jobless claim just fell to 50-year low, and all 3 major economies (US, China and eurozone) is loosening their monetary stances. How can oil & stocks suddenly collapse under these conditions?
I always admire the shorters. But this time on Senex, I hope I can read their minds and learn something new. Don't they worry that if Q3 earnings turn out to be good, or worse still, a sudden announcement that the company is being acquired (since it's so cheap relative to its assets and growth potential), its share price will shoot up and they will lose a lot of money? Why are they shorting Senex, can anyone tell me please?
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