It looks like you are using a trailing EBITDA multiple. 12 months forward is significantly more appropriate (and particularly for cyclical businesses near turning points in the cycle). NTA is just one valuation tool. However it has a strong basis and empirical support, particularly for capital intensive, low barriers to entry industries. The key thing is that NTA lags on the way up and on the way down.....the cycle has clearly turned and the NTA will likely increase. This is from PP&E write backs as assets are below market value (impairments reversed ) but also from FCF and DTA being moved on balance sheet. From a replacement value perspective the business would clearly take more than its current EV to be replicated. Also remember that incremental margins will be materially higher than existing group margins. When you have such high fixed cost leverage, every dollar of additional revenue makes a large difference to your bottom line.
BOL Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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