Why Trump is Losing the Trade Wars, page-3

Hey blackeyed, for a different point of view I suppose real economic prediction is more of a challenge than pure political partisanship:

Paul Krugman’s WORST Economic Predictions
Matt Palumbo

Always a staunch enemy of the GOP,Paul Krugman’s partisanship has gone into overdrive in the Trump-era to thepoint where he appears to be suffering from Stage 4 Trump Derangement Syndrome.Even CNN appears tame by comparison.

President Trump has personally blastedthe columnist for losing all credibility with his “false and highly inaccuratewritings,” and there’s no hyperbole there.

On the night of the election Krugmanmade his first prediction of what would follow economically – and hispredictions have only been downhill from there.

TheStock Market is Doomed Under Trump!

When it became clear that DonaldTrump would win the presidential election late into the night on November 8th,the futures market initially panicked, with the Dow Jones shedding over 800 points.

Before the markets even had thechance to open the following day, Krugman took to his New York Times column to predict they would never recover. “It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? … If the question is when marketswill recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

The Dow closedup 250 points the next morning – and you all know what’s happened since.

Admittedly I’m not sure how tocalculate the margin of error on the difference between “never” and “the nextday.”

Krugmanin 2017 – There Will Be No Return to 3% Growth

Appearing on Bloomberg in March2017, Krugman expressed doubt that we’d be seeing a return to 3% economicgrowth under the Trump administration.

He reiterated the same point laterin the yar on Twitter, arguing that it would be difficult to achieve 3% growthdue to baby boomers leaving the workforce.e

But >3%growth much harder now that baby boomers leaving prime working age instead ofentering it pic.twitter.com/dIn4P5XfYH

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 29, 2017

Now, the Trump tax cuts didn’t takeeffect until the start of 2018, and growth was 3.1% from the fourth quarter of 2017 t fourth quarter of 2018. Even more impressive, the economy was only projected to grow 2% according to the baseline under Obamao.

g if the economy did see a brief recession sometime in thefuture. But don’t be ready to give Krugman any credit for his pr

ARecession is Coming!

In February Krugman predicted that arecession is coming “this year or next.”

We’ve gone a decade without arecession (which historically occur roughly every seven years), so it wouldn’tbe all to surprisin

edictiveability, because he’s been predicting a recession under the Trumpadministration every single year of his presidency. Anyone can be a prophetwhen they make the same prediction every day.

It is worth noting how Krugman has dialed back the severity of his prediction. On election night Krugman predicted that Trump would throw the entire planet’s economy into a recession. He now admits “By the way, my track record for this is bad—as is everybody’s. No one is good at calling these turning points.”

No kidding.

AHistorical Comedy of Errors

It’s not just under the Trump-erathat the world’s most arrogant economist has butchered his predictions.

In 1998, Krugman dismissed the rise of the internet’s popularity and its eventual economic effects: “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

Only four years later Krugman came up with a plan to save the economy from the technology bubble which had just went bust – create another economic bubble! “To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.” And with that came the worst financial crisis since the great depression.

And that’s not all! In 2010 he predicted that we’d begin experiencing deflation – when in reality we experienced relatively low inflation. In 2008 he predicted that Europe would outperform America economically – and then the financial crisis hit, and Europe was hit far harder than the U.S. (and took much longer to recover from it). On eleven occasions between April 2010-July 2012 Krugman predicted that the Euro would collapse – which obviously never happened.

Next time you see a prediction fromthe New York Times’ economic expert, be sure to take it with a grain of salt.Or perhaps a pound of salt.