Agree. A definite sell for me also at these levels. It makes no...

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winsomelosesome

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12/10/17

19:14

Post #: 27865083
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Originally posted by zwu ↑

This update says that this year's revenue will growth 15-20%.

The last year's revenue was $240.2m, so the FY2018's revenue would be around
$240.2 * 117.5% = $282.2m

With a 17-20% margin claimed, the FY2018 EBITDA would be around $282.2m * 18.5% = $52.2m

Abstracting the Camperdown loss of $1-2m, which was not included in the above, the EBITDA would become ~$52.2m - $1.5m = $50.7m.

Assuming all the I+D+A=0 (very generous assumptions!) and a 30% tax rate, then the net profit would be around

$50.7m * (1 - 30%) = $35.5m

At present BAL has 113.2m shares plus 5.6m options outstanding (see 14/9/2017 announcement), so on a diluted basis, the EPS for FY2018 would be around

$35.5m / (113.2m+5.6m) = 29.9 c

which would be ~20% lower than FY2017 underlying EPS of 36c and ~26% lower than FY2016's 37.8c (data from CommSec Research).

I simply can't understand where the whole exuberance is from. Why suddenly a 12% jump yesterday and a further 5% today?

At today's price of $10.23, this 29.9c EPS makes a PE=1023c/29.9c=34x, that needs a double-digit EPS growth rate, NOT a double-digit reduction!

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Agree. A definite sell for me also at these levels. It makes no sense to be trading where it is now. The very reason why I decided to sell today.

BAL Price at posting: $10.23 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Agree. A definite sell for me also at these levels. It makes no...

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