why would you sell, page-16

I have been cautious about this stock for a while, buying and quickly selling for intermittent quick profits, worried that there would be a dramatic fall in stock price.

I am now much more comfortable with this stock, with this most recent announcement and have bought back in and will probably hold in the medium term unless the price becomes too attractive to hold. Doing some basic sums: Closing price: $1.945. Market capitalisation $345 million. French order: 9 million doses at say $20 per dose (assuming discounted price to such an order size). BTA royalty 7%. That equates to about $13 million in royalties over 2 years. If we can extrapolate that if about 6 similar sized orders were made by other countries (conservative), you are getting close to $80 million in royalties over the next two years (or $40 million/yr). Thats a PER of less than 10 for the current share price. This is not including the potential settlement from the litigation with GSK. These are comforting numbers to me, even with these conservative estimates. The BIG QUESTION and RISK overhanging these statements is whether GSK can ramp up production to meet the orders. It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price next week - I think there's still considerable room for price rises in the next week.