Yeah, the point you make is bang on, but perhaps a bit of calibration of the figures. I won't repost all my calcs again but am happy to share - and adjust as new information comes to light.
6500t is about right for the export in a given financial year, however we came into FY22 with a freezer filled with 7000t. They can't get that to zero, and their aim is around 2000t. So my guess is around 12000t to be exported in FY22 - note this will be exported as the domestic market is essentially saturated for Tassal with the current contracts, so increases in production will largely be into the export market from here on in. Anyway, I digress.
With 12000t on the export market, the current pricing we are seeing in China is around $14.50/kg due to their supply limitations. Air freight for China is around $1.70/KG, so we should be getting around $12.80/KG, which is a bit higher than historic prices (around 75-80NOK/Kg). Around 2000t was exported from Tassal in July/August we already know at these higher prevailing rates. Though as we move into Q3 and Q4 of the calendar year, we will be more exposed to general export market I suspect. The general export market price will be around 65NOK, though we get a premium for Asia/size of salmon, so even though that's around $10.50/KG we actually will get around $13/KG based on historical export prices. However air freight is $2.30/KG ex China, so it may only be marginally better than FY21's $10/KG.
And thus, why I think it's so important to empty those freezers into China as quickly as possible. Lower air freight, higher prices. And this will generate substantial positive cash flow into 1H22, recognising we have already expended the cash on growing the fish back in FY20-21.
TGR Price at posting:
$3.44 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
