Why would you short Tassals *now*?, page-25

The best I could find was this article from August 2020: "https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2020/08/19/tassal-eyes-retail-exports-new-shrimp-ops-on-track-to-boost-income/"

Quote:
"For the full year, Tassal sold 34,310t head-on, gutted salmon, with 28,259t staying in Australia."
However, I'm not sure whether the 6000t we export to China makes up a disproportionately large part of our earnings.

As for the shorting, the only 2 points of concern I've been able to identify are:
1. A rise in long-term liabilities
- However, around 173m constitute non-current lease liabilities AND
- Reassuringly, the current ratio on the FY20 annual report was >3 AND
- As someone else pointed out already, if our debt is being used responsibly (which it seems to be - to grow the business and accelerate returns), then I'm not too fussed.

2. A Beneish M-score of 0.14 (which may suggest a degree of earnings manipulation)
- I don't know how much to read into this. I've had a go at calculating FCF over the last 10 years, and it does seem a bit discrepant vs earnings... but I'm no accountant (I come from a medical background).
- Maybe someone with a background in accounting/finance can enlighten us?

Because TGR is one of the smallest holdings in my portfolio, my plan is to put my faith in management and continue holding for the moment. If the balance sheet or FCF are still on the weaker side next year, I'll probably exit my position.