Why would you short Tassals *now*?, page-263

Their export price is conclusively not the NOK spot price. It is correlated but they are able to extract a higher price relative to the NOK price for exports and have consistently done so.
HUO has been able to do much the same.

They do not actively hedge exports.

Given the above and current prices, it would be close to a cost price exchange given some Euro companies are accepting slightly negative margins to move stock.

The current dynamics of the salmon price is the result of a larger standing start of salmon biomass pre-covid with farms opting to delay harvesting culminating in a large amount of large live fish now being required to be harvested and sold. Considering the live trade is exponentially larger than frozen, it's no surprise the price is where it currently is.

I agree that the current range of NOK price is to be more likely at the bottom end of its cycle.

Luckily the domestic wholesale trade has resumed at the time of this harvest glut, therefore although impactful I think its less likely to require a serious readjustment of TGR earnings over the long term.

Aquaculture cyclical risk is still the predominant risk factor in this business.