Share
212 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 37
clock Created with Sketch. 15/02/21
21:21
Share
Originally posted by desertredlion:
↑
I agree fully with the last few posts today. Invested12 , yes I also trust TGR management. I repect the amount of time McQuade has been a holder of this company's stock and his/her familiarity with it and the senior personnel involved. I find it hard to believe things have deteriorated so much in the second half (an A2M style break-down) and management has not reported anything adverse to the market. And unlike A2M, we've had those re-assuring director purchases in December. I agree with your sentiments about tech. A company like TGR (or Bega or Elders -- I hold positions in neither stock) is my style of investing. I bought a tech ETF a few months ago and unfortunately (I'm half joking here...) it has become my biggest win over the past 12 months, but I feel happier and safer knowing I own a local agricultural company which makes real products like Tassal, than a bunch of over-priced foreign technology companies. Making money through a lucky tech stock purchase feels almost empty in a funny kind of way.Mdesai , "a bloodbath"? Really? I totally disagree with you. The share price is at the bottom of its trading range over the last seven years. "Market expectations are too high" is hard to believe considering the depressed share price. There doesn't seem to be any optimism built into the $3.33 current price. All I see online anywhere is justification for the current low price and high shorting percentage. Leasx today. It states that the 12.4% short position is a result of 'concern about Chinese dutieson imported seafood', this is exactly the type of lazy analysis which contributes to the current high short position. I seem to remember only 17% of our salmon is exported and the Tassal MD said the China-bound salmon could be diverted to Vietnam. Our domestic salmon (83% of volume) and our prawns, represent the bulk of our revenue, unlike Huon which relies on exports and doesn't have the prawn diversification. Dabozza , I'd rather pay for your excellent analysis on TGR than the mainstream analysts at Goldman and Credit Suisse, both of which have their own agendas and time/resource pressures. I read what you wrote three times to make sure I fully understood it. Brilliant work. The analysts seem to give superficial industry analysis to Tassal, and then add or take ten percent from the current share price depending on if whether it's trending up or down. You wrote something similar with your Select Harvests graph on the other thread. I've noticed similar with Woodside Petroleum, the banks, and Aristocrat Leisure over the past year. As the share price increases, the analyst's price target simply moves up ten percent. It's been happening since March 2020 with a lot of stocks and in particular APT. I can't possibly see how that stock is worth $150 a share.Hopeful has hypothesised that an extra one million Australians were at home this summer (eating salmon and prawns) and this hasn't been factored into sales estimates. Perhaps he/she is correct. I'd been living and working in Beijing for three years until the start of COVID last year. That's a lot of extra mouths to feed.
Expand
I'm excited for tomorrow and while my investing horizon for TGR is 5 -10 years . I did overload on current weakness. Fundamentally think the shorters have overcooked things and hoping for a bounce to $4. Maybe I've undercooked. It will be interesting
