I think the shorts are a crazy bet if you look at the...

I think the shorts are a crazy bet if you look at the business' fundamentals.

If you agree that TGR's price should reflect how much it's worth now (NTA) + the value of its earnings over the next few years (discounted at an appropriate rate), then if becomes really hard to justify the bear thesis.

NTA/share = $3.25 or so
Earnings per year/share = 13.14c x 2 ≈ 26c (conservative estimate)

Essentially the market is treating TGR like it'd be profitable for 1 more year, and then wound up (SP around $3.45).

Does Australia's largest salmon producer deserve this valuation? I suspect not...

My only concern with this company is that the free cash flows aren't as good as I'd like. My expectation is that management will use the extra working capital sunk into biomass growth to fuel an even higher profit in FY21-22.

PS It was Benjamin Graham who coined the "weighing machine" analogy