Why would you short Tassals *now*?, page-584

Stumbled upon ABARE forecasts, probably something institutions take notice of, they are a bit pessimistic on prawns, some select paragraphs.

Salmon
"In line with other seafood commodities, the global average price of salmonids declined in 2019–20. Ongoing lower prices are expected through 2020−21 as the effects of COVID-19 continue. The decline in global salmonid prices is mostly due to lower demand from the food services sector as a result of countries experiencing lockdown and other regulatory constraints. The volume and value of salmonid consumption declined overall, but consumption shifted towards retail channels as consumers purchased lockdown-friendly alternatives, such as frozen salmonids."

"Domestic prices are expected to follow trends in consumer confidence and demand across the food service sector. Prices are projected to remain low in 2020–21 and to begin a slow growth trend in 2021–22 and 2022–23, consistent with an assumed slow economic recovery. Prices in 2023–24 to 2025–26 are expected to plateau but remain favourable. A plateauing price effect is expected as domestic and global supply continues to increase. Domestic salmonid GVP is projected to reach $1 billion in 2022–23, reflecting this increased production."

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/fisheries/fisheries-economics/fisheries-forecasts#salmonids


Prawns
"Global demand for prawns declined significantly during 2020–21, driven by COVID-19 based disruptions on the global travel, food service and accommodation sectors....

Despite some signs of recovery in global demand in early 2021, further improvements in market conditions—including in the international catering sector—are not expected until later in the outlook period.

Through to 2025–26 the value of Australian prawn production is projected to fall. Given the subdued demand conditions internationally, most local production is expected to supply local markets, at lower price points. Export conditions are expected to improve over the medium term."

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/fisheries/fisheries-economics/fisheries-forecasts#prawns