With all of the positive information, I am having difficulty...

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volfenator

177 Posts.

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20/05/21

10:48

Post #: 53298485
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Originally posted by dabozza: ↑

Stock price taking a battering.. insert your favourite comments about "buy the dip", "diamond hands" and rocket emojis..

Meanwhile the global prices are going to be released soon. Will be quite promising I suggest. The market fundamentals are remaining strong - supply constraints combined with solid demand are pushing up the prices. Not sure whether the margins will be increasing as much as the prices have been, as inflationary impacts on the inputs are going to start to bite too. And medium to long term, I have concerns with the amount of salmon CAPEX and capacity coming online from Europe in particular.

Anyway, you can take a peek at the futures which are released daily (while fish pool prices are weekly), and they're looking great:

Here is the graph.. you can see the forward prices have increased 10NOK in the past month for May prices. This is the inverse of what was happening towards the end of 2020 when the forward prices looked good, and then collapsed as we approached them. Now we see they are looking 'ok' and then rising sharply as we approach them. It matters because TGR is on the spot price, not the forward price, so they should be getting a strong tailwind. Reckon could see +70NOK on the fish pool index. Tentatively it is showing 74NOK, but that's unverified data so don't rely on that at this stage.

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With all of the positive information, I am having difficulty explaining why we saw a run up from like $3.12 to 3.97 and now back approaching $3.50??? Perplexing

TGR Price at posting: $3.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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