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$5.22 tassal group limited

Yes, I'm unconcerned by some book that has 'confirmation bias'...

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Hopeful9

10,523 Posts.

1389

13/07/21

14:40

Post #: 54469541
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Originally posted by desertredlion: ↑

Since Dabozza posted (in the last few hours) short seller percentage has dropped further to 7.31%. As the share price has fallen from almost $4.00 short sellers have dropped off -- exactly as you'd expect, because their upside becomes less at the lower prices. Earlier in the year we saw exactly the opposite. Short percentage was rising while TGR share price fell to $3.20 - $3.30 I found that hard to understand because in the absence of bad news, surely short sellers did not expect the price to fall into the $2.90s and below. One would have expected their upside to be limited at those depressed prices. Perhaps they did expect further falls. Maybe short sellers follow each other into short positions the same way that momentum buyers inflate the price of over-priced stocks.

One aspect of Tassal which everyone seems to agree upon is that the fundamentals are strong. Revenue is growing. We've only suffered from lower EPS due to the costs involved in setting up the prawn farms, and Covid related expenses such as increased freight fees. I particularly like how Shareholders Equity has grown consistently each year. I like the low P/E ratio and that TGR seems to be trading at the bottom of its historic range. And that, as Dabozza has mentioned before, most of the capex for prawns has already occurred. I bought at $3.50 perhaps nine months ago and like you, have the re-investment plan turned on. That's a win for Tassal too -- not having to pay your dividend in cash. Bank interest is not even worth mentioning. At a 4.5% yield, l don't care if my holding even drops a few percent over the next couple of years.

Tassal is supposedly a boring consumer staple / Agriculture (aquaculture) company. However I suspect it will be re-rated at some point when prawn production really makes its presence felt. At that point, I can see Tassal being suddenly seen as a growth company with low P/E ratio and solid dividend, i.e. an absolute bargain. Perhaps along the lines of Bega in the second half of last year. When that happens, it will be a surprise to most, but not to anyone on this forum. I suspect it might be next February as Christmas prawn sales filter through to our 1st Half 2022 results. A big announcement of a contract signed with Coles or Woolworths to supply high profit margin Modified Atmosphere Packaging salmon over the next few years would be nice.

The only reason l can see Tassal doing a capital raise is for an acquisition. It wouldn't be to repair its balance sheet and to pay debt. Until then, I'll be patiently looking for an opportunity to top-up in the low $3.00s if that ever comes.

Our advantage over institional investors is our longer time horizon. We can afford to have the share price tread water for a long period of time with no impatient investors hassling us to justify our investment decision. In the meantime, Tassal management is quietly growing that shareholder equity and the prawn farms, which have depressed our recent EPS, are getting more lucrative by the day.

Keep holding and be patient. Our reward will come.

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Yes, I'm unconcerned by some book that has 'confirmation bias' among its Greenie readers written on every page.

The salmon industry is too important for Tasmanian (or national) politicians to sacrifice. While this may have changed in the last few years, historically the island state has struggled to grow economically and population wise. Aquaculture has contributed to positivity in this smallest of all Oz states.

However the industry does have to continue to constantly lobby parliamentarians and speak on the airwaves, via social media and in print whenever it can about the strict regulations that apply to the subsector and how Australia compares favourably to other nations in its aquaculture practices. An emphasis on how locally farmed salmon minimises 'air/sea miles' and hence emissions might placate a few of the undecided lefties.

TGR Price at posting: $3.44 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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