Good job on writing all of that up, and presenting it so well. However, I question the levels of dilution you have factored in, and see them as very, very, very optimistic. The feasibility of all scenarios for PAR come down to this dilution question now. There is no blue sky whatsoever if we cannot find meaningful deals to prevent a blowout of the SOI.
Your lowball scenario / bear case (designed to be the most pessimistic outcome you envisage?) has us issuing only 70m new shares until revenue? From where we are now, if we can get a raise away at $0.20 (which I reckon we probably can) those 70m shares only bring in A$14m. We can spend that in a quarter with ease.
So, you must be envisaging a dream deal even in your lowball scenario. It has to have a few key characteristics. Firstly, it has to come quickly, or that 70m in new shares will happen in a few months, and we'll still be years from revenue. It has to have genuinely meaningful revenue attached as an up-front component of the deal (say $50m....or to put it another way, about 60% of the company's valuation) to stave off multiple quarters of costs and push the SP high enough so that less that 70m of new shares will bridge any further gaps until trial successes, registration, and production/sales logistics have all been paid for. To get that kind of money up-front, surely - from what SW has recently said - 2x2 will need to be confirmed? But, in all reasonable likelihood, we just don't get that confirmation from the FDA before a new CR is required.
It's impossible for me to forget, until they prove it wrong, that they have never been able to sign a deal ever. With anyone, for any amount, and for any indication. So, before going any further, they need to do something which they've never been able to do before, in a matter of weeks - with huge question marks hanging over the trial dose. If they don't get any takers they'll maybe print 150m shares at $0.20 in July (A$30m), 250m shares at $0.12 in December (A$30m), 375m shares at $0.08 at Easter 2025 (A$30m) etc etc etc.
To me, your lowball scenario is a dream scenario. I'll snap your hand off for that, any of us would. Paul Rennie will be carried shoulder high down Collins Street if the lowball scenario comes in. I really hope you are right.
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