Merrill Lynch still have 9M they can convert, if they convert...

Merrill Lynch still have 9M they can convert, if they convert the lot, NDO will still owe them about US$1.1M.

An interesting excerpt from a Macquarie Report on CVN. Not a plug for CVN...only supplied to highlight the statement re the markets treatment of other E&P stocks.

"While we recognise the recent production issues, reserves downgrades, exploration disappointments and acquisition risks, CVN is trading at a 51% discount to our core valuation and a 48% discount to independent reserves certifier Gaffney, Cline & Associates, own conservative valuation for the 2P reserves base. This compares to other Australian mid-cap E&P stocks which are on average trading at a 42% discount to risked NAV. Furthermore despite offering a ~30 year 2P reserves life, CVN is trading at a 2012E P/CF of only 4.0x, which we believe is unduly harsh."

Are we included in this scenario? This trading pattern in NDO has been going on for 2 to 3 mths now, punctuated by a few spurts of buying pressure here and there, but overall controlled by the selling.

The offer side for most of the duration has averaged 30M shares, going up to 34M at one stage, and down to about 24M when we had a spurt to 16.5c...bid has been anywhere from 11M to 22M.

ML only had 8.3M as at end March, so at best now have around 23.6M, less sales. As at 3 May MS still had 80.07M.

I reckon in the last 2 or 3 mths we've seen enough shares go under the bridge to expect a Form 604 from a substantial holder...13.739M shares to move + or - 1%.
Last 2 604's from MS show them playing games of some sort?!

Just personal observations for those interested in such things.