Why?, page-7

Thanks Lordolean, JohnElanora and Edshann. Any comment made here is me thinking aloud and for others to shoot me down.
My strategy is to buy (or sell) in intervals and today’s announcement suggests I should buy. However for the second consecutive month the sp is not showing a strong upward trend.   The previous month’s report showed a large discrepancy between the sp and the NAV. I bought on that only to see the sp retreat to about $1.10 before regaining some strength. One would think that on today’s announcement a run to $1.30 should be foregone conclusion. At that price, AGF would still be trading on a discount of 20%. To me, even that is too great.
So what is holding it back? I think the ‘lumpy history’ of AGF plays a significant part. I can see long term investors, while breathing a sigh of relief, may be reluctant to expose themselves again to stress of the early years. However with a market capitalisation of $440 million the price is not being dictated by the mums and dads.  I would like to think the institutions that are devoid of emotion and who have the necessary research credentials will soon identify the sp/NAV discrepancy. One would also like to think that AMP are vigorously promoting their product. AMP, from my research, has a 37% stake in the fund. In closing the gap, they have a lot to gain.
Regardless of what you read about the Chinese economy in the Australian press, it is growing ( reportedly) at 7%. Seven per cent is not bad and the AGF is compiled from hand selected China A shares.

Below, I’ve pasted the overview from AMP’s Investor Presentation put out today.

AMP Capital Investors was the first Australian company to be granted a Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) licence
The AMP Capital China Growth Fund (AGF) provides an unhedged opportunity to invest in the China A share market
Only listed fund in Australia with this access
AGF has a market capitalisation of AU$405 million. (Commsec -$440 m).
AGF: Generated investment performance of 21.59% in 2013 and 55.36% in 20142
Share price appreciation of 24.1% in 2013 and 30.91% in 2014
Declared an estimated distribution of 1.922 cents per unit in 2013, 2.923 cents per unit in 2014

Edshann, I acknowledge that the div yield is not great. However the capital growth of the last two years has been in the excess of 20 % each years. The capital growth  coupled to the dividend gives a return of 25% per year for two consecutive years. Pretty damn good. And the sentiment for 2015 appears positive.
My dilemma is do I buy some at $1.175 or play it safe and wait for a close above $1.22?
Hindsight tomorrow should give me a fair indication.
Cheers