I'm far more likely to agree if someone writes "buy it today at...

I'm far more likely to agree if someone writes "buy it today at $5.30 then sell in a couple of weeks for $6.00 at a nice profit" than the current buy-and-hold argument. I wouldn't be surprised to see SYD rebound in a couple of weeks. I think buying for the long term is actually more speculative than a short term (few weeks) rebound buy!

It is easy to look at $9.30 in January and say "Gee, it looks cheap today!" It wasn't exactly cheap in January though. People were buying SYD as a defacto bond as term deposits are so low - never imagining the current situation would occur. The SP was going up steadily all through 2019 with the yield simultaneously decreasing. It probably belonged at $8.00 in early 2020.

There will be a time to buy, but there are too many headwinds now for me. I can't see the SP or greater market going anywhere with Melbourne in lockdown for six weeks. If the virus spreads to Sydney or greater Victoria and there's more lockdowns (likely, in my opinion) SYD will suffer. Then JobKeeper will end as Melbourne is (hopefully) coming out of lockdown.

The US is recording 60,000 new cases per day and flights into Australia are being scaled back more. I can't see the imminent rebound here. I'd need something - no matter how small - to grasp on to before I buy. Some slither of optimism. Unless it's a bargain basement price, it's not for me without some end in sight.