wild monday, page-2

As you know my 392 day cycle from the 2002 top called for another high last Wednesday +/- 1 day. Although a simple 392 has worked since 2002, I wondered whether 8.6x365.25 or 3141 days / 8 or 392.64375 should be considered now that 6 cycles from the start the fractions actually start to add up. That gave tomorrow but seems the simple number was fine, at this stage anyway.

Another cycle of 94 trading days has a low at Aug 12 but last time was 2 days late so I would allow Aug 14 and for both +/- 1 day.

That had me thinking about an Armstrong leg (392 cal days) from the July highs last year. I think that high was pretty important and probably the orthodox top regardless of Oct/Nov top, because of major cycle tops due then.

The July tops I think ranged from July 13 to 19 depending on what market or index.

So that suggests Aug 8-14 as a one leg down just like our 2002-3 bear.

Of course then we have the anniversary of last years mini crash into Aug 16/17.

Any drop into these times should set up the typical bear market low, but this may not be typical.

So long as we don't have a big upmove into month end, we can probably even consider this month's lows as sufficient for a standard bear low. I prefer Aug for the low but July is acceptable. These are minimum requirements and a decent up month is needed for confirmation.

My scenario was always for a one two punch, so this should just be the jab, with the knockout blow early next decade.