From this vantage point where lithium just seems to keep spiraling down, can you see a correction coming?
“With EV sales at let’s say 30% growth you can you use that as a rough proxy for where it’s all at. When the industry is growing at that pace downstream it is virtually impossible for the raw material world to keep up with.“What we’re seeing here is a bit of an air pocket in the combination of China talking the price down and drawing down stocks as compared to there being an outright glut of new lithium raw material coming through.“So my take on where the industry is at is, in fact, there will be a correction and there’s a reasonable chance that will be pretty significant when it comes back, because of the after effects of that shock.“China’s overplayed its hand and we’ll see, a reasonably significant price appreciation within a relatively short period of time on the proviso that the industry continues to grow at that pace.“So what that translates to is if if it’s 30% growth downstream, that’s telling you that you need a minimum of new production in lithium raw materials of about 300-350,000 lithium carbonate equivalent tonnes (a year).“That is three Pilgangooras in one year. So the reality is when that happens, the industry can’t deliver it.”
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