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Your assumptions ignore the obvious solution mm - 17 mil is...

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Aussie Joe

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15/02/17

13:35

Post #: 22632896
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Originally posted by moorookamick ↑

The Dec Qtr indicated that we have $17.106 mil in the kick and the question is will that be enough to see us cashflow positive come 30th Sept?

Let's guesstimate via assumptions:

Outgoings for Mar Qtr...............$5.639 mil (Dec Qtr Ann) ..................Income ..........Nil

Outgoings for June Qtr.............$5.639 mil (assume same as Mar Q)...Income ...........Nil

Cash at 30th June.....................$3.828 mil

Coal stockpile at port...............15,000 ton SSCC + 111,000 ton Thermal (half announced 2017 production target)

Sale of stockpile July 2017........$1.977 mil (SSCC) + $10.244 mil (thermal) = $12.218 mil AUD *

Now this is where it gets tricky. Normally payment is 60 days , so no revenue until September
with resurfacing of road to commence in , say August.

Cash @ 31st July.........= $1.948

Cash @ 31st Aug.........=$68K (without provision for road works)

So clearly we will need our first payments by the end of July; otherwise its a CR/loan.

Cashflow for the remainder of the year should be OK, IMO, even if we factor-in a few lazy million for the road upgrade.

Once we hit the 1 mil ton/year with most being coking coal, we should then hear the cash register sing !

Perhaps those with better info/better forecasting skills would like to comment.

All IMO of course.

Cheers
MM

Assumption: SSCC @ $100 USD FOB & Thermal @ $60 USD FOB & exchange rate of 0.76.
Due to this being our first shipment with new customers, we cant expect premium pricing)

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Your assumptions ignore the obvious solution mm - 17 mil is plenty, but if they needed more they would simply pre-sell some of the production that is on their wharf. To call their situation "comfortable" would be an understatement.

TIG Price at posting: 6.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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