There seems to be some legs in the share price. Is there some good news in the hallways?
At 70 cents and an EPS of 5 (which is the lowest it will be this year, in my opinion), you have a PE of 14. That sounds about what it should be. I cannot see it getting higher. But I cannot see it getting lower either.
So, let us say you were an investor looking NOW. Will you buy Zenith? Now we have chatted a lot with the price below 65 cents and it looked value there. What the heck has changed to push it up almost 10% in the last couple, three weeks. There is no news? And no news is good news, but the no news should only be upping the price maybe 1 cent a month. Remember we estimate free cash flow about 1 to 1.5 mill a month. So market cap should go up between .75 cents and 1 cent a month (on no news, good or bad).
Are there traders on the technical side? I am never a technical trader. (maybe to my err). I am always fundamentals. So, if there are some technical guys buying I am going to guess that my 70 cents 'no news fundamentals' will likely overshoot a little. So now I am looking for a short term top of 72 or 73 cent or so. But, Lordy, that is just a blind chart guess.
You recall a year or so ago the price got to 1.24 on the basis of a one off refit of some assets in PNG. So I dont know how another person will value the share? On fundamentals I dont think it was ever worth 1.24. It will be, but not for a couple or three years. My valuation is a mix of my fundamentals, and guessing what news will come out before it does, and then guessing what other traders will do. Heck, if I KNEW the price will oscillate between 70 and 65 I would sell ALL my shares at 70, but buy the ALL back at 65 cents. But the FOMO grips me. Even if I sell some, maybe the price will not fall. And given the industry, one would not expect a lot of ups and downs (or trading opportunities)... but we sure have had some!
If anyone can hazard why we have a bit of up, I will be interested.
What does our news cycle look like? Not much has changed.
- maybe POG approaching $2300 are the legs
- maybe the no bad news are the legs
- maybe my posts are the legs
- maybe climate change are the legs (we just built the 8th largest in the world remote, solar, mining power station)
- maybe the half yearly will look better than expected (and Zenith do announce any variations, so maybe an announcement is coming)
- maybe some new contract is coming (you know I want contracts of 15 to 25 MW... the sweet spot)
In any case, it has been nice to see my retirement fund shoot up the last couple of months.
Good luck to all buyers, and sellers, and holders. Does anyone have any goss for me to research?
There seems to be some legs in the share price. Is there some...
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