Seems like no-one else wants to stick their neck out on this so i'll give it a crack. It's just my best guess, based on watching the stock very closely for over a year, not any technical analysis:
If the broader market remains robust it'll continue to trade between 25-30c.
If the broader market tanks badly it'll end up trading between 20-25c.
Assuming the market remains OK, specific individual announcements like, say, the deployment of the 3rd CETO II unit will temporarily bump the range up to 30 - 33c. An announcement of a site for the first CETO III unit test might even bump it up a couple more cents.
The best chance for a re-rating is obviously the Binningup desal plant. From memory, the 4 companies going for the contract will have stated their case by the end of june and at least the WA Water Corp will have an idea how competitive the CNM bid is by then. If the Water Corp engage in insider trading like they did prior to the announcement of the 4 "finalists", maybe they'll start nibbling at CNM shares again after that. However, given that the timing of the decision has already been pushed back and will no doubt continue to be very "fluid", i wouldnt base any decisions on that timing.
I'd also love to see Albany's potential incorporated into CNM's Binningup bid to make the project larger and more cost effective (like OPT are suggesting a bigger project incorporating Binningup's power requirements).
CNM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
