Balla Balla could be developed by Atlas under the merger but it...

Balla Balla could be developed by Atlas under the merger but it would have to wait for port space at Anketell, which is least 3 years away from being anywhere near ready. I can't see Atlas even wanting to raise the finance to do so and they have other plans.

There may be no other realistic offer to trump the merger, in which case Atlas would sit on the deposit and wait for a buyer to come along. They could be waiting quite a while under this scenario, given that no-one saw fit to bid against Atlas for it and they'd have no port capacity until Anketell is ready.

I believe the Chinese are still interested but they'd have to come up with a pretty attractive package which would include finance, and we're talking well over a billion dollars. Hebei is certainly big enough to do it but they're playing ducks and drakes and as someone else here pointed out, they may not be nimble enough to get it together before the May deadline. Rockcheck would like the ore but they don't have the clout to make it happen. There may also be a buyer in India but that's pure speculation and IMHO highly unlikely.

What about FMG? Twiggy may be interested but I'm less inclined to think so now than I was a couple of days ago. He outlined some pretty ambitious plans the other day to ship 355 million tonnes a year by 2013/14. They're currently doing 40 mtpa, which is well short of his stated target of 55. I doubt Balla Balla would have even been on his radar before this week but with port capacity up for grabs, I suspect it is very much now but he'd still have to convince the banks within a short time frame that this is a good idea. In short, he's already stretched.

Those of us who hold AXO could do a lot worse than hitch up with Atlas. They've taken a significant step in reducing shipping costs by no longer paying FMG and I think Dave Flanagan has vision and the capacity to take it to the next level. I'm watching and waiting.