FMG 1.20% $21.41 fortescue ltd

paps ... i don't follow your strategy - although that might...

  1. MJS
    2,274 Posts.
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    paps ... i don't follow your strategy - although that might primarily be the difference between a long term investor (which I am) and trader (which maybe u r, and most people here r).

    ...which changed sentiment over-night, you must change your views over-night also...
    The only time I go along with this is if sentiment has changed because there has been a real change in fundamentals. Sentiment on a stock can be weak (industry could be out of favour, market start to question longer term growth, whatever), but the company itself is solid.

    Being an FMG thread let's use this as an example. What are the risks? To keep it simple commodity pricing, labour, China growth (related to commodities anyway), and expansion funding.

    My viewpoint? Company has now stated they have the funds to complete their expansion plans. One risk gone. I am positive on China for a long time (sure, will be ups and downs, but longer term up). Hence commodity prices will be reasonable for some time. Think of this: if production increases to 155 million tonnes as per plan, and iron ore price stays at current prices, what will happen to profit? Adopting whatever PE u feel is reasonable where might the SP be?

    Hence, not being a trader, why would I sell if the SP goes back to $4.25? Or why would I take my profit at the current price when a few years down the track I should get much more?

    That's why the cast majority of times I ignore the overnight sentiment changes that you feel mean I must change my viewpoint.

    having a long term plan over the past few months was a recipe for disaster
    It wasn't for me as I wasn't carried away by any emotion and what happens on one day doesn't worry me (although might prompt me to buy something cheap!).

    MJS
 
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