And in 3 years time FMG may well also be an oil producer? Zinc?...

And in 3 years time FMG may well also be an oil producer? Zinc? Copper? Whatever they deem appropriate, its already in the works. So worrying about 3 years time doesn't make sense to me.

You don't think management is taking steps to adjust to the market conditions?
They out of all the companies have made massive changes and in a very timely manner to deal with tough market forces as was demonstrated in the past with debt refinancing and cost cutting.

Yes the market is forward looking but I think it tends to run 6 months forward not 3 years.
Personally I like to look forward 3-4 months and then make decisions based on information provided by companies I invest in, not what the media spruikers tend to churn out to get people hooked on their dribble.

Now if you posted something like "why don't we sell (write)FMG March expiry 2.91 Euro puts for around 40 cents premium per share which works out to 13-14% return over 4 months for a very limited exposure ($2910 per 10 contracts aka 1000 shares) then I'd be impressed but all this fearful musing over whats happening in 3 years time is a little far fetched.

Do you understand what I'm getting at?