CVN 3.33% 14.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

will get belted tomorrow.., page-6

  1. 2,163 Posts.
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    Hi Stefanis.
    Phoenix crept up on me (because I operate on the basis that what you own that is valuable consists mostly of your bread and butter assets(no allowance for pie in the sky) plus an allowance for those that others more knowledgeable than me have suggested could join my club.
    I like to savour the prospect that tid bits like Phoenix,Warro,Rangkas etc. could all come onto the radar in time and produce rates of reward that some qualified people thought all along but would have been wasting their breath in trying to convince the rest of us .
    In order;
    1.I am still hopeful that the partners will find out how to distinguish between a good V prospect and one only marginally worth drilling.For me the jury is out on the V regime until some decent,sustained results start to come in (and probably a cheaper rig becomes an option). I am very mindful of the high cost of hiring the big rig and the absence of rewards from the touted 4-wells-per-pad advantage.
    2. "1" puts even more emphasis on succeeding with the S regime (for which we dont even have the use of a rig at the moment) and very recent V results suggests to me the emphasis should be (and probably is,though the partners are reluctant to say so) more like 75% S and 25%V,not the other way around.This is where we are heading,IMO.
    3.If the jury is out (for the partners as well as me) on V drilling and the S reinvigoration is going to be attacked with skill and vigour (which it clearly is) but is in limbo then thank god for a sweet (but serious )interlude with Phoenix,now getting close to a cash payday possibility after only 2.5 years since inception.
    Sandstone drilling ,even for low well rates is a gimme if the topography is good (for shifting the rigs quickly and making the level pads for the small surface tanks and for the all-seasons roads so the "milk tanker" can empty them every few days,including in the monsoon season ,and for the maintenance rig to access to work over(hone) the well every 3-5 years in a 20-year well life).
    The trick is to have heaps and heaps of prospects,as many as possible of WBext standard rather than WB and to have a tight S territory with hundreds of prospects-such as WB plus WBext plus L33. Even 30bopd is acceptable and wells can continue to operate down to as little as 10 bopd but you have got to have rapid,cheap drilling.
    Sirikit averages 400 bopd over a steady 500 wells in production. Yes we do need some of this ilk to balance the sub-100s but the 100-200 found at WBext are good news indeed . Sandstone drilling is oh so reliable once the first well has proved up because whereas a single V drill may be the only one that a V compartment is ever drained through the first S drill can be followed by dozens/scores of following wells to drain a large,easy- to- find "compartment". You should be able to drill 3 or 4 S wells for every complex V well for the same money and all 3 or 4 should be producers once the first one proves up.
    Based on the old CVN situation I think current management are hoping to book hundreds of S prospects and a 3 figure well count in "the oily patch",in time.
    Meantime Phoenix could be a very nice prize for us for a very small ticket cost,provided CVN (and Finder no doubt) can sell down to a level so as to kill the obligation to start to fron up for some expensive drilling..
 
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