"No I’m not downramping, that’s not my game. I still hold some AGL. I’m just well, frustrated."
We all are.
If you rationally look at the situation, ask yourselves these questions:
1. Can people wean off electricity? No, electricity usage will only increase, not decrease.
2. Has renewables sorted out all its problems? No, battery technology is still not matured enough to overcome cost barriers. If you look at solar panels as an example of how slowly technological advancement happens, the photovoltaic effect was discovered in 1839 and took till 1950 before Bell labs used silicon to make 6 percent efficiency solar panels. It took another 40 years to 2006 with the enactment of the Solar Investment Tax Credit in the USA to kick start major investments into solar renewables thereby driving mass production and bring down costs. If solar took this long to start becoming viable, how long do you think battery technology will take? If solar panels still cost as much as it did 10 years ago, would anyone splash up $50,000 for a 6.6kw panel? Similarly, would you pay $16,000 for a Tesla Powerwall now or will you wait 10 years and see it go down to $3,000 due to mass production? If so, then AGL has one more chance to get it right - start the transition while keeping an eye on cost. Build capacity as the price of batteries are going down. Don't pay too much for overpriced PPA. If the future price of an item is going to be 82% cheaper, then wait; no need to go all in at once.[1]
3. Is AGL resistant to change and adamantly refuses to change? No, AGL has heard the green crowd and is willing to change. The problem is people want everything now, "Damn the fxxking torpedo". Look at Afghanistan, Biden has heard the leftists and pulled out without a measured withdrawal plan. Billions of dollars worth of US military weapons were left behind to the Taliban. Is this what AGL wants to do? Does AGL want to pull the plug now on fossil fuel generators and leave people in blackouts just to satisfy the greenies? Leadership takes courage and when that courage is to say "No" to unreasonable requests, that is actually easy leadership. AGL is not leaving people to die like in Afghanistan, just merely saying "we need time to do this properly and no amount of crying from you will change our duty of care to people who needs reliable power right now"
4. Are you a trader or an investor? If you are an investor then sit tight or... not, it's up to you. Investors should be happy when the price of their target stock goes down, makes it cheaper to buy. I know I have belabored this a lot but would you buy BHP at $15 or FMG at $1? Surprisingly most people would not but I have. "Price is what you pay, value is what you get" - Warren Buffet
Some poster by the name of Christo13 or 14 asked me how much money have I lost on WHC (COAL!) and I replied why does it matter what I do with some other stock? Well, WHC is doing very well now and coal prices is at all time highs. Similarly for AGL, if you have done your homework and can see a path out for AGL (like I saw for coal prices), it will do really good when it has sorted out its problems because this is a rare chance to lower an investor's cost base. Not everyone approves of coal but everyone uses electricity.
AGL sells electricity, not coal. AGL is willing to transition into renewables and storage capacity. AGL remains one of the largest supplier of electricity in Australia. Breakup may relegate it to 4th/5th/...10th...20th place but you get shares in 2 companies when it happens.
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