evening,
in answer to the question of the thread - yes of course Greece will default.
It will default whether or not there is a referendum.
The deal is wiping off a lot of debt anyway - in my book that is default, no matter what you call it.
If they have a vote on it - they can only vote - either yes, we agree = default or NO we don't agree - which means we can't /won't pay = default.
Greece has defaulted for 200 years - nothing changes.
The best outcome for Europe is to tell Greece to bugger off - let their bad money go and let Greece go the way it will go -------- that will set a precedent - to do anything other such as rescue will only set an example that says, you can lie, you can cheat, you can be totally irresponsible - and we will rescue you ----------------- what message does this tell the rest ----------?? obvious isn't it.
Far better to say - bugger off, live by you own means, we don't want you ---------- what message does this give? - ask an Italian politician.
There is only a slim chance Europe can get out of this even remotely cheaply - and I really don't know where this chance will come from - but it won't come from being soft, that's for sure.
have a great night
Pinto
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