I think it will be similar to BBI/PIH. So you may be correct that buying post recapitalisation will be the cheapest entry. PIH fell about 20% on relisting.
I also think it will be similar in that you now must value the company on an EPS basis. Through NAV out the window. With a NAV of about 12c post recap their is little reason to buy short or long term.
If we value MDT on EPS and use $14.5mil for a half, assume no further one-offs for Mervyns, improved occupancy and lower interest expenses. Perhaps double the $14.5 then add a little, lets sat $35mil FULL year.
EPS= $35mil/4bil share =0.875c per share.
Then factor in other REITS and market sentiment. I believe 8xEPS is realistice, but you can try a few values:
EPS ratio......Possible SP
6 5.25c
7 6.125c
8 7c
9 7.875c
10 8.75c
Obviously a discount may exist in short term as we dont actually recieve any dividend, but debt only needs to be lowered not eliminated before distributions can recommence.
I think the current pricing is about right, I wouldnt be nervous about a dive when trading resumes but I wouldnt be expected a huge gain either.
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