Iron ore, coal earnings to soar to new levels: Abare
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September 22, 2008
THE value of Australia's commodity exports is expected to increase this year, according to official estimates issued today. World economic growth will continue at a healthy clip in 2008 and 2009, fuelling demand for Australia's key commodities, particularly iron ore and coal, and underpinning a massive surge in exports this fiscal year, the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said.
The value of commodity exports from Australia will rise 44 per cent on year to a record $213.68 billion this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, from a revised $148.67 billion for last fiscal year, Abare said in its quarterly outlook publication.
Abare is more optimistic than in June, when it forecast commodities export growth this fiscal year at 40 per cent on-year.
Mineral resources - including mineral and energy products - will make up the lion's share of export growth, with the value of mineral exports tipped to surge 53 per cent on-year in 2008-09, to $179.74 billion, from a previous estimate of 48 per cent on-year growth.
“The short-term prospects for energy and mineral commodities remain positive, supported by continued demand growth and supply-side constraints,” Phillip Glyde, Abare's executive director, said in a statement.
Iron ore export earnings are set to climb 92 per cent on the back of rising production from development projects and higher prices.
Abare expects the nation’s iron ore export earnings to rise to about $39 billion in fiscal 2009, up from $20.3 billion in fiscal 2008.
The forecaster said China's iron ore imports are forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2008 to 445 million tonnes and by another 10 per cent to about 490 million tonnes in 2009.
Coking coal prices are expected to remain at high levels helping drive a surge in Australian export earnings from the key steelmaking input.
Abare said Australia's coking coal export earnings are forecast to reach $44 billion in fiscal 2009, driven by higher prices and an expected 7 per cent increase in export volumes.
Australia's refined copper output will jump 19 per cent to 526,000 tonnes. In mine output, production is forecast to go up by the same margin to 1.027 million tonnes as a number of new projects start up.
However, Abare expects copper prices to weaken by 8 per cent during the 2009 calendar year to $US7100/tonne, as growth in world copper supply is set to exceed demand growth.
In other base metals, Australian alumina output is expected to go up by 5 per cent to 16.5 million tonnes.
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