The Pentanet strategy (publicly stated) is to switch their existing NBN customers to fixed wireless. The last quarterly show that they are already doing this (% of new customers signing up on wireless is much higher than existing). With terragraph, they can fast track this migration. Given the disparity in EBITDA margins for Pentanet, they could even offer a lower price than their NBN price and it would still be significantly more profitable (85% margin v 5% or breakeven..). The user experience on NBN is terrible so they would not need to price it lower. Plus, as I said, customer service is key for customers, and service levels are chalk and cheese for 5GG v NBN.
If NBN connect Fttp for all homes I would be absolutely shocked. The % of Fttp now is still very low and the Govt has probably spent 3x more than they though they were going to spend in 2007 when it was announced. I'll believe it when I see it.
Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts on the bandwidth issue. That's news to me.
I think the stock probably levels off around here for a while but as 1. news around Cloud gaming roll out comes out. 2. They continue to show more user adoption and 3. They have continued success of margin growth and moving the mix to more wireless, the stock definitely goes up. There is obviously a blue sky built into the valuation but more than justified in my opinion.
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