This company is fast approaching the end game, survive or die, I...

This company is fast approaching the end game, survive or die, I believe it's now a very high risk to reward scenario. ( I personally don't know which side of the camp I fall on )

here's my take on it....

THE BAD
* lost 9mil last year
* consistently diluting share registry
* constant problems during mine start - up
* endless delays during start-up
* badly under estimated cost and complexity of mine start up

( however as a investor in start up mines, I fully understand that delays and things happen during start up and during ramping up production. It's not like you just build it, flick the switch and watch the cash roll in)


The Not so BAD

* 2.5 mil in cash, from latest capital raising and NGG sale
* currently producing 144k ounces per quarter or 576 ounces per year
* Substantially increased silver production with 2nd crusher coming online soon (although what substantially means is any ones guess anything from +20% to +150%)


by my rough calculations they need to be 300K ounces per quarter or 1.2 mil ounces/year to break even at $13/ounce

I am long term very bullish about Ag prices which is the main reason I started investing in MMN , maybe I should have just bought silver bullion and buried in the backyard instead. I work all my calculations at $13/ounce, any more is a bonus.

There stated production target is from as far back as Feb 06 of 2.5 mil ounces / year. I think they are still along way from this.....

however if they can get this next quarter's production above 200k ounces, then ramp up to 300k ounces sometime early next year, then this company SHOULD survive.

Like I mentioned earlier this is a very high risk / high reward company at the moment. @ 4c per share it's tempting to drop some more in, because the potential reward is high if they pull through. BUT it's is still a very real chance of losing it all.

If they can get up to 500K/quarter then there eps maybe around the 1.7 - 2.0c on a p/e of 10 thats a share price of about 20c. HOWEVER thats alot of IF's.

personally I think I going to sit on the sidelines till I see next quarters production numbers, before doing anything.

This is just my rambling thoughts... trying to decide what to do about this company, writing down my ideas.

I invest in start up mines with a 3-4 year time frame, I fully expect to lose in some, and win in others, luckily the wins out way the losses.

Investing is a rollercoaster enjoy the ride, both up's and downs. ;)