Hi Jaysee,
I've been watching CBA, NCP and QAN lately - imo all three are ripe for a fall. Trouble is, all three are in upward corrections, so picking their respective "tops" has proven to be a frustrating task.
NCP recently formed what looks like an ending diagonal, but the following pattern down looks more corrective than impulsive, and now it appears ready to breach the upside "line in the sand" at $12.20... ie, it doesn't look like it is going to confirm the "ending diagonal" pattern. So I'm not going to touch it.
CBA has satisfied all the conditions necessary for completion of its current correction on several occasions now, but in each case has insisted on going higher. Even CBA's latest action may still be a feint by the perennial bulls. Accordingly, while CBA's bounce away from the 61.8% level looks convincing, I'm going to be looking for a decent confirmation before committing to shorts. Eg, a clear 5-wave impulse down, followed by a clearly corrective 2nd wave.
Once the confirmation is there, the rewards should follow, given the ultimate downside target of well below $23.05...
From an overall perspective, the XAO may be starting to roll over. If it goes above 3082 before going below 3072 today (Wed 18 Jun 03), scratch that thought. But if it goes below 3072 first, look for confirmation of an impulse down from the 3090 peak. If that happens, it lends more weight to the idea that CBA may be rolling over too.
In the background, those mad Americans keep pushing the DJI higher and higher. I'm currently looking for signs that it may end at around 9400 or so - that would make a nice super-large flat correction from the lows of last October. If it does happen, it will be within the next couple of days - something to also compare with the local market.
In a nutshell, though, IMO, in the current environment, getting confirmation before committing to a position is essential. And in the meantime, patience, patience, patience.
Any further thoughts would be welcomed.
Regards,
Ultrafart.
will never fall below $29.50 again!, page-8
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