I topped up again on this today, this has now moved into my top...

I topped up again on this today, this has now moved into my top 5 holdings. If we just look at Bengalla and use rough numbers at today's coal price, if we assume it holds, we'd be looking in the vicinity of $550m profit for a year, or around 55% of the market cap. I'm still bullish on thermal coal prices, it's so difficult to start new mines in some jurisdictions, and for the last few years many coal producers have struggled so won't have the capacity to develop new mines anyway. The lack of new supply I think is starting to have an effect on price (most producers would be profitable at this price), but the price could easily run higher for some time before sufficient new supply is deemed to be safely economic to develop.

I'm going to assume for now that New Acland doesn't get approved for valuation purposes, however I still think it is a reasonable chance. It'll only cost them a couple of million anyway to fight the court battle and get an answer so they may as well go for it. If it doesn't get approved they'll have the balance sheet capacity for other investment options.