The answer to this question will vary from person to person but for me it is a strong yes. Below I will outline why I believe PEP-11 will get the nod to go ahead.
JOHN BARILARO STANCE ON PEP-11
John Barilaro has given his recommendation over:
"I have listened to their views, and those of the people they represent - it confirms my own position to recommend that PEP11 is not renewed."
I have written to my federal counterpart, Keith Pitt, in my role as a member of the Commonwealth-New South Wales Offshore Petroleum Joint Authority, recommending that PEP-11 is not renewed.
The Permit was issued under Commonwealth legislation, it covers Commonwealth waters, and the final decision will be a matter for the Commonwealth government.John Barilaro (JB) is not the first member of the JA to recommend it is not renewed and it has been renewed anyway. The Final decision will be left at the hands of Keith Pitt (KP). JB only ever really had the power to do one thing during this process and that is delay it. As has been covered, he no longer holds this power as he has handed his decision over to KP. Also note, JB has been very quiet on PEP-11 so one has to wonder just how much he does not want it to go ahead?
PAUL TURTON: Minister, does the New South Wales Deputy Premier's advice carry much sway with you?
KEITH PITT: Well, it is a joint authority. Mr Barilaro has provided that official advice about 1.30 yesterday. And of course, we'll consider it. But I am the final decision maker.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/petroleum-exploration-permit-pep-11
KEITH PITT STANCE ON PEP-11
Unlike JB, KP has been a little more vocal on PEP-11.
“There is no proposal for gas exploration close to the Coast, generally it’s more than 30 kilometres off the coast,” Federal Resources Minister, Keith Pitt said.
"We should keep in mind, this [exploration area] is thousands of square kilometres and the well is the size of a dining room table," he said.
"Rigs will not be popping up off Sydney Harbour and surfers will not be dodging them trying to catch waves," he said.
He said other states, like Western Australia and Victoria, were benefitting from offshore gas projects, and the risks were low in New South Wales. "We've had a gas industry for decades, more than 50 years in Australia," Mr Pitt said." It's very strongly regulated by one of the best regulators in the world and they've been successful for a long time."
Last week Mr Barilaro was asked about the licence and said he did not support any further extensions on gas exploration. But Mr Pitt said he would be making his decision in the national interest and with the need for industry certainty in mind. "We need gas and we need to ensure our manufacturers continue to be competitive," he said.
PAUL TURTON: Is it fair for me to say, as I did a moment ago, that there's no community support at all? I say I haven't heard any. What about the feedback you're getting?
KEITH PITT: Well, I mean, this is a permit which has been around for quite some time. In fact, an exploration well was last drilled in the region in 2010, approved under the former Labor Government, of course, by then Environment Minister Tony Burke. So it has been around. It's been successful. We have an offshore oil and gas industry that's been in place more than 50 years. And we've got very strong regulations in place. And once again, I'll give the proposal full and detailed consideration. And the decision I make is one which is in the national interest.
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/pitt/transcripts/interview-abc-radio-newcastle
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-12/minister-brushes-off-pep-11-gas-exploration-fears/13148198
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/pitt/transcripts/doorstop-interview
People can comment what they like to up or down ramp. You are welcome to listen to them or you can listen to what the actual decision maker has to say in regards to it being approved. Whilst he has not said YES publicly, everyone knows he cannot do that as yet. My advice to people is read or listen to what KP has said and decide if you think he is leaning toward a 'YES' or 'NO'
NOPTA STANCE ON PEP-11
I think JB and KP have both made their stance very clear. What was NOPTA'S recommendation though? I believe NOPTA has recommended YES! My reason for thinking this is for a couple of reasons;
1. JB would not have needed so much time deciding and exploring reasons to give his a no recommendation. If NOPTA said no, IMO JB would have handed his decision over a lot sooner and not have it demanded from him. You don't need to write a 'compelling' against argument if you can copy and paste it from NOPTA'S recommendation who would have outlaid all their reasons.
2. I don't think KP would go against the recommendation of both JB and NOPTA, I think it would be hard to argue that KP is against it and he would well and truly know what NOTPA'S stance is on PEP-11.
RISK Vs REWARD
Buy in at 18 cents with the possibility of the SP hitting as high as 80 cents (estimates and break down of this estimate can be found on a HC thread done by the very person who is not sold on the idea of PEP-11 getting approved).
Check the SP of BPH on its last NOPTA approval and pre-drill (They were not trading in cents but in dollars)
If it is not approved the SP will fall, there is no doubting that. Keep in mind that Cortical does have an FDA pending approval for BARM which could drop at any time from now. BARM has been approved by 4 other health authorities around the world including Australia and Europe. Whilst Cortical will not give the SP the boost PEP-11 will if approved, it will give you a back up to recoup your losses to some degree. As I have said before, BPH is not a one trick pony.
If PEP-11 and Cortical are denied the SP will plummet and we are looking at a blood bath. IMO both will be approved, the above is but a snap shot of why I think PEP-11 will be approved and Cortical will be approved because BARM saves the health system money and is safer for the patient. BARM is already being used in other counties and as previously stated has been given approval in a number of other countries.
If both PEP-11 and Cortical get approved you have missed a life changing event. I haven't even seen a guess at what the SP will hit if this happens.
Personally, I have risked tens of thousands of dollars, if it all turns sour I can recoup that money and it doesn't ruin me. If it succeeds I stand to make millions, money that I may not ever make in the time frames we are looking at. I think the risk Vs rewards is in favour of the holder or I wouldn't be in it. Not up ramping to get a few pips so I can sell and make thousands, this is only my opinion and how I am viewing this investment.
BPH have appointed a number of key personnel for drilling and have spent over $25,000,000 on it. People are bringing up historical FACTS as to why PEP-11 may not be approved. These facts have been known for a long time and are only brought up when it is seen fit or to suit their own agenda. It has been deemed irrelevant by some of the people who are now saying it is relevant. I am sure BPH are given guidance and what is required of them for an approval to be granted, unless you think they have blown $25,000,000 in hope it is approved? To think the parties involved have no interaction is absurd, NOPTA would not say 'guess what we want you to do and we will continue to decline your application until you finally do guess'. We are talking about big money and no government agency would get away with playing children's games.
It is no certainty to happen, BPH and BUY are pretty sure it is happening (the people whose job it is to know what their company is doing now and in the future) and I would say KP is a yes (the guy whose decision actually matters)
DYOR as there is much more to this but I think most will find there is a lot more reason to be 'FOR' this stock and what it has to offer short term and long term than 'AGAINST'.
Keep in mind the government are releasing their gas plan this week, if PEP-11 is part of that then approval will be this week! There is also a truckload of money being thrown at this by the government too if I'm not mistaken. If BPH gets a bit of that pie id expect to see another jump in the SP.
(20min delay)