will processing start before late july

Just a few hightlights of the shutdown extention announcement on 12 April and some of my comments/questions.


ERA announce
------------
"On 28 January 2011, Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ERA) commenced an
orderly suspension of plant processing... At that
time, the suspension was expected to be for a period of 12 weeks."

MY NOTE
-------
Fri 28 Jan + 12 weeks = 22 April; so processing, with all things being 'normal' would start on 22 April.



ERA announce
------------
"Since that announcement, the Northern Territory has continued to receive significantly
higher than average rainfall... In light of these circumstances, ERA
announced today that it will extend the suspension of processing plant operations until
late July 2011... This is highly dependant on future rainfall."

MY NOTE
-------
The rainfall between 28 Jan and 12 Apr, was indeed wild. 1348mm in 10 weeks (more than half the entire wet season!) But the extended shutdown is noted as 'highly dependent on future rainfall', so a check of rainfall at Jabiru from 12 April to current (14 May) yields a total of 37mm (thank God). In fact there was only one day with any substantial rain, 23 April for 22mm.

So, since this annoucement which is 'highly dependent on future rainful', there has not been rainfall, and in fact the weather has been sunny and hot and dry (low humidity) and even breezy (I check every day!)

Given the occurance of the most perfect weather conditions for drying and water evaporation; and I assume the ERA annoucement planned for 'normal (rainish)' conditions, can I conclude the mining (and processing) will start up ahead of schedule?

Given the announcement of the the extended shutdown (from late April to late July) immediatly killed the share price 10% (lucky me, I bought the day before announcement - but thought the general bad news (delay extended) was generally known and priced in)... given the annoucement was worth a 10% drop in the share - then much further caning... if they announce the shutdown extention will be only to, say, late June... will the share price suddenly jump 20%

I guess I am being sarcastic here. I dont see the share trading on fundamentals. I see it trading on emotion. So, I would love to see some emotive upside from some future positive annoucement.


ERA announce
------------
"In light of this continued suspension, which has occurred immediately after a very
challenging 2010, a comprehensive business review of ERA's current operations and
future projects is well underway. The review will assess priorities, processes and
future expenditure.
In parallel to the business review, work continues on a full and detailed review of the
substantial water and rehabilitation projects to be undertaken and the associated
expenditure requirements."

MY NOTE
-------
The water treatment was announced (another negative shareprice hit!), so I guess we should worry about the 'soon to be' business review announcement. They are always held negative by the market!

It will be nice when some normal day to day mining/processing/selling/profit starts.