We live in the world of Central Bank free money, bail-outs and moral hazard Tony. There is no risk anymore hadn't you heard? And you are certainly not allowed to discuss risk associated with one of the most significant Australian companies in existence on Hot Copper.
Until the risks are all too real it seems....Phillipines national airline has gone into bankruptcy. That's bankruptcy @mayo1975 - not negative equity - they've actually filed.
Lets have a little look who else:
Flybe (UK) Files for Bankruptcy 3/2020
Trans States (U.S.) Ceased Operations 4/2020
Compass (U.S.) Ceased Operations 4/2020
CityJet (Ireland) Files for Bankruptcy 4/2020
Virgin Austraila Files for Bankruptcy 4/2020
Air Mauritius Files for Bankruptcy 4/2020
Avianca (Colombia) Files for Bankruptcy 5/2020
Thai Airways Files for Bankruptcy 9/2020
TAME (Ecuador) LIquidation 5/2020
LATAM (Chile) Files for Bankruptcy 5/2020
SunExpress Deustchland Announces Ceasing Operations 6/2020
One Airlines (Chile) Ceased Operations 6/2020
NokScoot (Thaiand) Ceases Operations 6/2020
LIAT (Antigua) Ceases Most Operations 6/2020
Jet Time (Denmark) Files for Bankruptcy 7/2020
Virgin Atlantic (UK) Files for Bankruptcy 8/2020
Air Asia Japan Ceases Operations 10/2020
Cathay Dragon (Hong Kong) Ceases Operations 10/2020
Ravn Air (U.S.) Files for Bankruptcy 10/2020
Norwegian Air Files for Bankruptcy 11/2020
InterJet (Mexico) Files for Bankruptcy 4/2021
Philippine Airlines Files for Bankruptcy 9/2021
(some big boys in there)
Just to be very clear, I don't personally think Qantas will go bankrupt anytime soon. I do struggle to see it becoming free cash flow positive before 2023 and believe it will need to raise capital and/or issue more debt. The latter it may struggle to do at such favourable rates when the Chinese housing glut gathers steam and yields rise with inflation that is clearly not transitory, as Central Banks are forced to taper and even raise rates and too many airlines scramble for a piece of the same debt pie, as already being seen in US and Europe:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/airlines-debt-burden-hits-340-billion-as-covid-chokes-travel
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