Slightly out of the money puts ahead of earnings and short stock position.
Its gonna be a shocker. Joyce will talk the future up, but perhaps the market will see through the BS he has been giving for over a year now.
Do like your observations of analysts forecasts. Its like in 2020 when they were all forecasting a recovery into 2021, then 2022, now its 2023.
Qantas will not see 2018/19 conditions for at least half a decade, if at all in my opinion. This rush of pent up demand all the experts talk of is overstated. There have been major structural shifts in tourism consumption that will take many years to return to normal.
Agreed, the market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. That said the Aussie mkt is being bouyed by bank buybacks via the recent cheap RBA funding facility. ONce the banks are done transferring that money and the RBA finally removes its head from its rear on massive global inflation, Australian households could be in for a little shock. Been a little too easy in Australia since 2008 as the middle classes have all gotten rich through asset inflation far more than hard work, in part because we got off lightly in the GFC vs the rest of the world and Australia has been enjoying the easy global monetary conditions since. Global debt has sky rocketed after....a global debt crisis. $280 trillion and counting and a massive 355% of GDP.
Its funny I was arguing a while ago the RBA should do a pre-emptive rate rise like NZ, to deter excessive risky borrowing by the most vulnerable on the lows. I was told I was an idiot that the RBA could not make independent decisions of the Fed/ECB. Now the same experts will be saying Australia can avoid rising global inflation and interest rates. It can only do so to a degree. Global central bank rates are going to go up quickly, starting in March at the latest.
US 3 year yields have gone from 0.33% to 1.71% in six months - JPM will not be lending quite so cheaply to Qantas next time. Six months!! Australian equity investors are being remarkeably resilient....or remarkeably stupid. Time will tell. Personally I think Phillip Lowe has shown time and time again is a fool, utterly disconnected from the reality of working Australians and the economy they drive. The same people who have consumed Qantas' flights during the good times.
The can has been picked down the road for so long. Looks like we might finally be facing a little music and tourism is the first thing to take a hit along with those badly financially leveraged companies exposed to it!
Oh those poor suckers who've never seen a recession without Central Bank stimulus. We've had a financial liquitidy driven recession in 2008. Then an exogenous supply side recession averted by large and then massive financial conditions expansion - hence we have inflation of 7.5% in the US. The next is going to be driven by the failure of Central Banks to see their involvement in the level two chaos system finance is (i.e. they contriute)....
the awakening to the likes of zombie companies (that Qantas ultimately is) and massive ghost cities of China, that unprecedented and ridiculuosly overrun monetary supply encourages. Perhaps I can put my money in bitcoin or NFT's as an central bank driven money inflation/rate hedge....
(20min delay)