Qantas will definitely survive, but assuming a catastrophic...

Qantas will definitely survive, but assuming a catastrophic scenario, who is to say it would exist as it does today? Virgin is still around, but the brokerage accounts of its shareholders would beg to differ.

Qantas is a definite hold for me. I am up over 30% and will definitely hold mine until I can claim CGT exemption 12 months after the SPP allocation. But more likely I will hold long-term, perhaps offloading a little if/when a recovery appears complete. But I wouldn’t buy more above $4 right now.

Here is why I ‘think’ there will be a good recovery for Qantas.

* state borders opening + low contribution of international to the bottom line.

* cost cutting efforts have been fantastic from a shareholder perspective. I think Joyce has managed Qantas response to the pandemic incredibly well. He has used it to push through changes that pre-pandemic would not have been palatable. The pandemic has created a lot of opportunity in this regard.

* Sure, Virgin is still around and Rex is dabbling in the capital city markets domestically, but Tiger is gone. Qantas have a monopoly in both the top tier and budget markets. Virgin and Rex can fight it out for the middle ground and one may well lose. Rex is cutting Qantas grass by running capital city roots, but Qan is taking the fight to them on their traditional regional routes as well.