Mr Bensan and several other Qantas investors are betting the uproar over the airline’s prolonged reliability and service issues won’t stick to its brand in the medium term, and it returns to robust profits next year. Macquarie Research forecasts $981 million of profit in the 2023 financial year and $1.28 billion in 2024, while the company’s shares are up 12.4 per cent to $5.09 in the past six months.
Mr Bensan used the example of supermarkets, where self-service checkouts helped cover-up a lack of any in-store staff to service customers, and said that aviation could not paint over the cracks as demand ramped up more rapidly than airlines could find staff to load, fly and unload planes.
It was also hard to predict the rapid bounce back in travel, according to the investment analyst, with no company hiring ahead of the curve to ensure it is properly protected against staff shortages and sick leave absenteeism.
“Whether it was in-sourced or outsourced, you could not protect against the labour force disruptions that occurred in the last couple of months,” Mr Bensan said.
Qantas took to Twitter on Tuesday to say its on-time departure, cancellation and mishandled baggage rates had improved significantly to be close to pre-virus levels, after the ABC’s 4 Corners program raised questions about its safety and reliability in the wake of COVID-19 cost cuts.
The airline faces the prospect of further disruption as workers at one of its new baggage handling suppliers prepare to strike from later this week and in-house engineers continue industrial action amid a pay dispute.
Reports emerged on Tuesday that budget subsidiary Jetstar had half of its international fleet grounded due to engineering issues as travellers complained about being stuck overseas.
Forager Funds Management chief investment officer Steve Johnson said the problems needed to be fixed, “but I think we should have some sympathy for their predicament”.
“This is a global problem,” Mr Johnson said. “Labour supply is a huge issue all over the world and particularly in those industries that were shut down by government decree.
“Why would someone who has found another job want to take the risk again?”
Qantas losses during the pandemic amounted to almost $7 billion, but Mr Joyce says it is on the path to a recovery and most analysts expect it to be profitable again in the
2023 financial year. It even announced a $400 million on-market share buyback citing the strength of the balance sheet in August.
White Funds Management boss Angus Gluskie said Mr Joyce had earned the right to try and turn the ship around.
“There is a good level of confidence in him and I think shareholders are comfortable with him,” Mr Gluskie said.
(20min delay)