Neither. What's the upside risk? The bubble goes on a bit longer...

Neither. What's the upside risk? The bubble goes on a bit longer and this shitco goes to $6 or even $7? Unlikely, but that's the extreme worst-case scenario.

On the flipside, QAN has negative book value and will simply have to catch up on opex in the near future meaning that it will be cashflow negative for years and years to come. Rising interest rates will wear them down while they carry a mountain of debt and they simply can't do another capital raise after doing this idiotic buyback, meaning that they will rely on increasing debt. After public scrutiny of the idiot Treasurer Frydenberg's grants (Qantas before, Harvey Norman, etc) there won't be any easy money coming from Labor towards Joyce when he eventually needs it, just debt with an increasing interest rate on it. So the downside is much more likely, and deeper, than the upside. It's a no-brainer really.