Will QAN survive?, page-5478

Its hilarious that Qantas is up today. The possibility of not just two more 25 BPS rates rises this year, but three came into very good likelihood with yesterday's RBA announcement. Consumer spending is already quickly tightening as many households on flexible rates suffer and those coming off low fixed rates wisely fixed in 2020/21, move onto far higher flexible rates.

Retail spending fell considerably in December:



Airfare prices are rapidly coming down, not going up. And demand for them is only going to continue to go lower after the post COVID binge and consumers across the entire spectrum see a tightening of disposable income due to rate hikes:

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), average household debt was $261,492 in 2021–22, which is among the highest in the world. Servicing that debt is going to put paid to leisure travel for many.

Monetary lag is amplified by the cushion of many Aussies fixing low rates in 2020/21. They are progressively coming off in 2023/24 and going to hurt:




Its mystifies me that people think Qantas undervalued and a buy at these levels. The mkts sure are stupid at times.