Agree REX is a poor "investment" (as is QAN - but you'll...

Agree REX is a poor "investment" (as is QAN - but you'll disagree), but I reckon unlisted Bonza will be first to go belly up.

There are few recent reports as to how it's performing. It discontinued some routes, but flies many other odd small rural city routes that if there's a further economic downturn must logically suffer. It also rarely flies a route seven days a week: the low frequency is a disincentive to use, as if a flight is cancelled, there won;t be one for another two to three or even four days. Not reassuring to potential users.

While listed AMP hardly has a proud record in recent years, its longtime economist Dr Shane Oliver suggests there'll be a (further?) downturn in (domestic) leisure travel in 2024. I suspect he's correct.

However, yes, REX is also a possibility to go into liquidation. I do not understand how it will ever find a replacement for its small SAAB aircraft that are extremely long in the tooth today, let alone in five years' time. It also must be losing money hand over fist on its Boeing 737-800 routes (although at this time of year, passenger loadings are healthy, as one might expect).

Petrol has recently dived in price per litre so depending on distance, some who've not booked an airline ticket may instead drive to a domestic holiday destination. This doesn't much matter pre-Christmas when every mode of transport should be chockas or close to it (save for no shows), but it becomes important in lower demand periods when leisure travellers help keep individual air trips profitable.

IIRC, there were two Compass failures: Mk. 1 and Mk.11. I travelled on both when young.