Anything's possible, but if domestic bookings start to lighten...

Anything's possible, but if domestic bookings start to lighten at least a little, QAN's net profit will in time be lower despite the outrageous fares it's managing to coax travellers into at present.

International passengers in recent years have not been a huge source of QAN's profits in the better years, but I've just been looking at both Australia and Asia to Europe fares: my perception (based on a relatively limited sample) is fares have started to decline in business class.

This will be accentuated when Turkish Airlines start accepting bookings for its planned Australia-Singapore-Istanbul and connect a host of European cities or the UK flights, even though it might only be 60 extra J (business class) and just under 600 Y (economy) class seats a day in each direction if there's a daily from Sydney and also one from Melbourne. Similarly from April 2024, Singapore Airlines is adding extra flights from four Oz cities, with about 2350 extra seats each way per week. The mainland Chinese airlines (while not yet used by many non-Chinese travelling beyond communist China) may also add extra flights despite the mainland Chinese economy no longer booming.

QAN also has an urgent need for more capex given Richard Goyder and Alan Joyce have badly neglected what is now an extremely old fleet by legacy airline standards. QAN has boasted it can (easily) afford this but if oil prices go up a bit more due to the Israel/Palestinian war (and the side issue of Russia v Ukraine), that plus rising staff costs may make finding the money for capital expenditure just that bit more difficult.

I wouldn't be confident of a dividend in the near term.