But you've got to admit that the Shell offer has got people...

But you've got to admit that the Shell offer has got people thinking in a new SP paradigm (unfortunately).

Not helped by the goose (Nick Raffan) from Fat Prophets saying on Fox business yesterday that the Shell offer was "fully weighted" and then didn't back it up with any substance.

Also to those who say that past 2p ans 3P metrics are irrelevant or out of date...I totally disagree.

EVERY industry has its KPI's...they are what helps us make comparisons between different assets within a same sector.

To simply dismiss them which is what a number of self-opinionated boffins are doing is like suggesting that commercial property should no longer be compared on a rent per square metre basis, or yield. Dumb stuff.

Whilst 2P and 3P may not be the ultmate valuation metric (and one can argue about whether the historical figures are totally valid in todays marketplace) they are still a very useful guide.

So, back to Goose #1 (Nick Raffan), how can he determine that it is fully-weighted? He never mentioned any metrics or reasons why.

I totally disagree with his view...and whilst mine is a personal opinion just like his, I can sheet my opinion back to metrics, past history and an allowance for GFC.

Oh yeah, poor journalism by Sky for letting someone pontificate on such an important matter without getting them to put some concrete around the assertion.

The journo should have asked two questions:

(1) What makes you think it is fully-weighted?
(2) There are those who will disagree with you, what would you consider to be their reasoning for thinking their shares are worth more and why they consider a higher bid will come?

Clearly I think that AOE will get more than the current bid price because it is low-ball by past metrics and history suggests in overwhelming numbers that that first bid is followed by at least one extra bid that is made final and time dated.

I also think that right now ESG and BOW for that matter have a much higher intrinsic value than their present SP's. It's our directors specific duty to unlock that extra value.

In the meantime...brickbat to Nick Raffan! I'm an ex-subscriber and now you're also off the Christmas card list!