I don't think I am missing the big picture - it's just that is...

I don't think I am missing the big picture - it's just that is is complicated.

When the banks agreed to the re-finance they though the executive were the best people to get the value out of the company (so the banks could get their money back) so they re-financed.

They might think that is no longer the case. The aviation business and shipping business could probably be sold for good money and might see the banks get most of their money back very soon.

I think it is unlikely the banks would choose that option and are more likely than not to extend the debt. But things have changed rapidly since the re-finance was announced and it is not as if they have got better (I'm talking globally here). The plan was contingent on asset sales that aren't happening. What we don't know is how bad the lack of asset sales might or might not make things.

I personally hope the banks extend; I just don't think we can be certain they will.