will the gillard government last 3 yrs?, page-3

I give a 3 year term a 80% chance. Why?:

(1) A feeling of self-preservation by certain Independants

(2) The ALP not wanting to go back to the polls until they fix themselves up in Queensland

(3) The Senate from July should be easier to get the things the ALP want to get through (e.g. mining tax etc).