Couple of points people should consider. The GI ammonia plant...

Couple of points people should consider.

1. The GI ammonia plant was old and inefficient and end of life (not sure what the capex spent last year was on but if it was statutory inspections of tanks then this expenditure is not wasted as tanks will still be required for imports). From memory it was built in the 60s and was a second hand plant even then.
2. IPL has been squeezed by a high gas price and the inefficient plant. Modern scale plants are producing ammonia at sub 30GJ/tonne. GI would have been producing at about 38GJ/tonne. At a $5 gas price this is a $40/tonne disadvantage. Accordingly there is no business case for investment in new capacity at GI at these gas prices. Ammonia is a globally traded commodity with the pricing set by lowest gas prices. Not to mention middle east gas prices significantly lower than this.
3. urea production could continue at GI based on imported ammonia (although it is not clear from announcement if ammonia and urea production ceasing or just ammonia)
4. the urea production at GI is very small compared to the east coast market - I think it is ~300ktpa capacity
5. fertiliser production is 24/7, 365 days a year whereas the application of fertiliser occurs in discrete windows. As a result there is always going to be imported urea to meet peak requirements. IPL used to operate a swap on its MAP/DAP production with Mosaic to manage this
6. the BoD may have erred by not closing GI earlier (and its always easier to say this in hindsight) but surely it should be commended for not continuing with a bad decision and throwing good money after bad.
7. the gas pricing increase on east coast was highly forseeable once LNG export terminals were built - it is exactly what happened in WA
8. IPL is making its case for green ammonia - surely in a decarbonising world this is a positive and the sooner they progress this concept the better.

Just some random thoughts